After an eventful 2021, things are unlikely to calm down in the new year. Here are a few issues that will be high priorities for the Department of Defense going forward.
China and Taiwan
The United States and China had a bumpy relationship in 2021 that shows no sign of smoothing out in the new year. The Chinese military took aggressive actions in their missile testing as well as in their posture toward Taiwan, the island nation that claims its independence from the mainland, which the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t recognize.
The Chinese military conducted a hypersonic missile test that got the attention of the international community, and a DOD report released in November reveals that they have accelerated the pace of their nuclear expansion program to the point where they could “have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads” within roughly five years.
Gen. John Hyten, the former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who called the pace of China’s military development “stunning,” acknowledged that the Chinese military has conducted “hundreds” of hypersonic tests in the last five years, while the U.S. has conducted only nine such tests.
The U.S. is still a “year or two” away from fielding their own hypersonic weapon, Gillian Bussey, director of DOD’s Joint Hypersonics Transition office, said in November.
Separately, the CIA created a new offshoot to focus exclusively on the threats emanating from China in October, which was announced a week after the Chinese military flew nearly 150 military flights into their airspace.
Understanding and catching up to the U.S.’s “pacing challenge,” as Defense officials have characterized the foreign power, will be a subject to watch not just in 2022 but moving forward.
Over-the-horizon capabilities in Afghanistan
The U.S. military is now relying on its over-the-horizon drone strike capabilities after it withdrew all of its remaining troops from Afghanistan at the end of August, with the Taliban now in control.
Relying on strikes without boots on the ground is a risky proposition, experts have said, though Defense officials have reaffirmed their confidence with the plan. Without having resources in a target area, it’s harder for accurate and real-time intelligence to be gathered and utilized for a strike.
The military launched an errant drone strike that targeted a civilian aid worker, killing him and nine others, in Afghanistan during the final days before their withdrawal. While the Pentagon was quick to distance this strike from its over-the-horizon capabilities because there was intel of an imminent threat, it still demonstrates the risks associated with aerial strikes without support in the target location.
Defense officials have warned about the possibility of a resurgence in terror organizations in Afghanistan, with estimates saying ISIS-K, the affiliate in Afghanistan, could gain the capability to launch an attack in a foreign country within six months to a year while al Qaeda’s timeline is roughly twice as long, though it remains an area of concern for the upcoming year.
Russia’s military buildup along Ukrainian border
Russia has amassed a significant military presence on its border with Ukraine in recent months, stirring up both rhetoric and fears of a possible invasion reminiscent of Russia’s incursion into Crimea less than a decade ago.
Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin have spoken multiple times about the rising tension and possible consequences, such as a Russian military invasion. The two most recently spoke Thursday, and Biden “made clear that the United States and its allies and partners will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement released after the call ended.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said earlier this month he had seen “evidence that Russia made plans for significant aggressive moves against Ukraine,” though other officials have noted that Putin’s intent remains unclear.
The two sides are set to speak again in mid-January.
Additional discharges for service members who refuse COVID-19 vaccine
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin mandated the coronavirus vaccine for all service members and DOD personnel in August, and an overwhelming majority of active-duty service members were vaccinated ahead of their deadlines, which have already passed.
More than 200 Marines have been discharged, the Army relieved six active-duty leaders, two battalion commanders included, and issued 2,767 general officer written reprimands, while the Air Force said 27 out of the roughly 5,000 active-duty airmen and guardians who refused the vaccine were discharged.
Even though each service has at least 95% of its active-duty members vaccinated, the group that hasn’t been vaccinated numbers in the thousands, so the discharge numbers will continue to rise.
Those who are discharged over their refusal to get the coronavirus vaccination cannot be discharged under less than the general designation as a result of a provision that was included in the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act, which Biden recently signed into law.
Further claims of politicization of the military
Conservatives have accused DOD officials of promoting liberal viewpoints, arguing the new focal points are detrimental to the readiness and effectiveness of the military.
The controversies range from critical race theory, a concept that claims U.S. institutions were created with the implicit design to keep whites ahead of minorities, to the coronavirus vaccination mandate.
The crescendo of the conversation regarding critical race theory in the military came when Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, gave an impassioned answer as to why teaching cadets about the theory, and others, is valuable.
“I want to understand white rage, and I’m white,” Milley told the House Armed Services Committee in June. “I personally find it offensive that we are accusing the United States military general officers are commissioned [and] noncommissioned officers of being ‘woke’ or something else because we’re studying some theories that are out there. I’ve read Karl Marx, I’ve read Lenin — that doesn’t make me a communist.”
Milley also faced accusations from Republicans of politicizing his role for sitting down with reporters for their books, and they accused him of treason for appearing to go behind then-President Donald Trump’s back in having conversations with his Chinese counterpart in late 2020 and early 2021.
The issue, while currently out of the spotlight, could reemerge in 2022.
