This is not making any headlines.
IHS’s June report is here, and it confirms that the economy essentially went nowhere in May and June. This outcome was easily predicted a week ago based on data already available.
Specifically, here are the revised figures for the four most recently reported months:March – $19.251TApril – $19.358T
May – $19.364TJune – $19.357T March, April, and May were all revised slightly downward from IHS’s May report — to the point where your statement that “The total size of the economy has now surpassed its pre-pandemic level” is barely true, and could easily become false if August’s or September’s numbers are revised downward by even the slightest amount.
More to the point, as seen in graphic below, the economy clearly stagnated in May and June, to the point where IHS’s narrative acknowledged (bold mine, italics theirs) that “the level of GDP in June was actually 0.1% below the second-quarter average at an annual rate.” What also is apparent is that President Trump brought the economy back to 92% of its previous high before he left office.
This is NOT a “solid” second-quarter performance. IHS’s data also makes a mockery of these (and other) statements in your report:
– ” the nation has achieved a sustained recovery from the pandemic recession.” Two flat months indicate that the recovery is anything but “sustained” — especially with unemployment still near 6%, exploding federal debt, and declining wages.– “For now, the economy is showing sustained strength.” Again, the past two months have been flat, at best.– Your cherry-picked statement about wages (“average hourly pay rose a solid 3.6% compared with a year earlier”) is a pathetic coverup of reality. It ignores the fact that government/BLS figures tell us that wages have fallen 2.3 percent in the first five full months of the new administration in real terms (CPI-U up 3.9 percent, wages up only 1.6 percent).
IHS’s latest monthly report and other recent data are more than likely ringing alarm bells at the White House and the Fed. Why won’t allegedly intrepid reporters with decades of experience and an extensive network of contacts like you tell the public what’s really happening?