China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that its population declined for the third consecutive year in 2024, despite a modest increase in births for the first time in seven years.
The country recorded 9.54 million births, up from 9.02 million in 2023, resulting in a birth rate of 6.77 births per thousand people—an improvement over the previous year’s 6.39. However, with 10.93 million deaths, the population suffered a net decline of 1.39 million, bringing the total to 1.408 billion. India surpassed China as the most populous nation in 2023.
Experts suggest the slight rise in births was likely influenced by delayed marriages due to the COVID-19 pandemic and enthusiasm surrounding the Year of the Dragon, seen as an auspicious time for childbirth in Chinese culture.
However, sociologists argue that deeper structural challenges, such as gender discrimination, high living costs, and inadequate child care support, continue to drive China’s demographic decline. Without significant reforms to its social safety net and cultural practices, experts caution that reversing this trend will remain unlikely.
In January 2023, American Faith reported that China’s population shrank for the first time in decades, adding to pressure on leaders to keep the economy growing despite an aging workforce and at a time of rising tension with the U.S.
Despite the official numbers, some experts believe China’s population has been in decline for a few years — a dramatic turn in a country that once sought to control such growth through a one-child policy.
Many wealthy countries are struggling with how to respond to aging populations, which can be a drag on economic growth as shrinking numbers of workers try to support growing numbers of elderly people.
But the demographic change will be especially difficult to manage in a middle-income country like China, which does not have the resources to care for an aging population in the same way that one like Japan does. Over time, that will likely slow its economy and perhaps even the world’s, and could potentially keep inflation higher in many developed economies.