A new study from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has revealed that in a war between China and the United States over Taiwan, Chinese forces would ultimately be defeated, but at a significant cost in terms of casualties and heavy losses for both sides, The Washington Times reports.
The study, which was made public Monday, involved 24 separate war game scenarios in which China launched an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait, setting off a war with Taiwan, the United States, and Japan.
According to the report, “In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan.” However, it added that “this defense came at high cost.”
Even in the “optimistic scenarios,” the report noted that the U.S. and Japan would lose dozens of ships and hundreds of aircraft, with thousands of service members being killed.
Additionally, Taiwan’s economy would be severely damaged and left without electricity and basic services.
On the Chinese side, the report stated that “China also suffers heavily,” with its navy in shambles and its core amphibious forces being broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers being taken as prisoners of war.
Despite these losses, the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, has defined the retaking of Taiwan as a “core interest” of his government, making the potential conflict over Taiwan a “dangerous flashpoint in bilateral relations.”
The report also pointed out that Secretary of State Antony Blinken had warned months ago that China appeared to be speeding up its timetable for action against Taiwan.
Former head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. Philip S. Davidson, had also told Congress that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could take place in the next six years.
The CSIS study emphasized that the results were made public to enhance debate on the topic and to give a more comprehensive view of the multinational conflict that is most likely to occur.
They were conducted to explore the potential outcomes of a potential conflict over Taiwan and to provide insights for policymakers.
The study says it tried to cast a wider lens to describe the multinational conflict that is most likely to occur.
