New polling in the Republican primary for Texas’s 23rd Congressional District shows challenger Brandon Herrera overtaking incumbent Republican Tony Gonzales among likely GOP voters, signaling a potential upset in the March 3 primary. Herrera, a Second Amendment activist and small-business entrepreneur, is gaining ground as conservative dissatisfaction with Gonzales grows.
A Political Intelligence poll conducted in December 2025 found Herrera leading Gonzales when likely primary voters were asked if the contest were held immediately. The survey of 422 respondents showed about 43% backing Herrera versus 34% for Gonzales in a hypothetical head-to-head scenario, with nearly one-quarter of voters still undecided. Gonzales — first elected to the seat covering portions of West and South Texas — drew support from roughly 29% of respondents and an additional 11% who said they were leaning toward him.
Herrera’s campaign emphasizes staunch conservative positions, including strong support for gun rights, pro-life policies, and alignment with former President Donald Trump’s agenda. Herrera told the Daily Caller he wants to provide the district with “a pro-gun, pro-life, pro-Trump congressman” — a clear appeal to the district’s conservative base.
President Trump has publicly endorsed Gonzales, issuing what he described as his “COMPLETE and Total Endorsement for Re-Election” in December, aiming to bolster the incumbent’s support.
Gonzales has faced political headwinds tied to controversy over the death of a staff member, Regina Santos-Aviles, whose tragic passing in September sparked scrutiny within the district. Multiple news outlets and sources reported Gonzales was romantically linked to Santos-Aviles, though Gonzales has denied specifics of the allegations and has urged the public to remember her for her community service.
Earlier polling, including a Trafalgar Group survey from late 2025, showed Gonzales with a narrow edge when voters were not briefed on the controversies surrounding his office. However, once issues around character and ethics were introduced in the polling context, Herrera gained the advantage, underscoring how localized political dynamics and perceptions of personal conduct can sway Republican primary voters.
The March 3 primary will determine the GOP nominee for this sprawling Southwest Texas district, which stretches from San Antonio’s suburbs to El Paso’s outskirts. Voters in the Republican primary will decide whether Herrera’s conservative critique resonates more forcefully than Gonzales’s incumbency and Trump endorsement.
