The risk of a Hamas spoiler is emerging as a central challenge to President Trump’s U.S.-backed Gaza ceasefire plan, even as the administration signals confidence that the terror group will ultimately disarm. While the White House insists progress is underway, regional experts and Hamas leaders themselves are casting serious doubt on those claims.
Speaking during his 10th Cabinet meeting of his second term, President Trump said disarmament was a key objective of the second phase of the Gaza plan. “And now we want to get Hamas, no guns, right? To disarm,” Trump said, adding, “A lot of people said they’ll never disarm. It looks like they’re gonna disarm.”
Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff reinforced that view, telling Trump, “We’ve got the terrorists out of there, and they’re going to demilitarize. They will, because they have no choice.” Witkoff added, “They’re going to give it up. They’re going to give up the AK-47s.”
Regional analysts, however, warned that the Hamas problem could derail the plan entirely. National security analyst Kobi Michael said Hamas “doesn’t intend to disarm itself and never intended to.” Michael said the group will use “all the possible and creative maneuvers and manipulations in order to keep its power and influence in the Gaza Strip.”
Michael argued that only Israel has the capability to force disarmament. “The Israel Defense Forces are the only entity that can disarm Hamas,” he said, noting that most nations are unwilling to deploy troops to confront the group directly.
Hamas officials also contradicted the White House assessment. According to The Times of Israel, senior Hamas leader Mousa Abu Marzouk said the group “never agreed to disarm; no one’s raised it with us directly,” while asserting that Hamas remains in control in Gaza. He also indicated Hamas retains influence over appointments to a new technocratic governing committee.
That committee is part of Phase Two of President Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan and is designed to manage civilian affairs and reconstruction. Witkoff said, “We are in the second phase now… we’ve stood up, for the first time, Mr. President, on your behalf, a technocratic, all-Arab government.”
Michael warned Hamas could exploit the structure, saying it mirrors “the Hezbollah model.” He added that Hamas has already demanded more time, Israeli troop withdrawals, and immediate reconstruction while preserving its military strength.
“Hamas is the ultimate spoiler and is a major obstacle in Trump’s Gaza plan,” Michael said.
