Democrat denial took center stage after veteran pollster Nate Silver openly criticized Democratic leaders and activists for refusing to acknowledge mistakes from the 2024 election. In an interview with Semafor, the FiveThirtyEight founder expressed surprise that party factions appear unwilling to reassess strategy despite a decisive loss. His remarks come as party leadership withholds a full public review of the election.
“I’ve been surprised, to some extent, by the unwillingness of a certain Democratic faction to admit they [expletive] up last year,” Silver said. He pointed to a post-election analysis from progressive group Way to Win, noting that it claimed Democrats failed only by not pushing progressive ideas harder. “There’s no mention of [Joe] Biden’s debate with Trump, for example,” Silver added.
Silver also cited the Democratic National Committee’s decision to cancel the release of its 2024 election “autopsy” as further evidence of Democrat denial. He questioned the party’s openness to lessons learned while progressive California Gov. Gavin Newsom gains national attention. “You’d think after last year that Democrats would be phobic of nominating another prominent elected official from California with a tired mix of vaguely progressive ideas,” Silver said, adding, “The proverbial definition of insanity is trying the same thing again and expecting a different result.”
Despite his criticism, Silver suggested that Newsom or former Vice President Kamala Harris could still compete in a hypothetical 2028 race against Vice President JD Vance, citing President Trump’s unpopularity. He warned, however, that the progressive “#Resistance” faction risks becoming “a self-contained epistemic bubble.”
DNC Chair Ken Martin defended keeping the report private, calling it a distraction ahead of the 2026 midterms. “We completed a comprehensive review of what happened in 2024 and are already putting our learnings into motion,” Martin wrote. He added, “Here’s our North Star: does this help us win? If the answer is no, it’s a distraction from the core mission.”
Critics have noted the unpublished report was expected to sidestep major questions about President Joe Biden’s candidacy and Harris’s nomination. As Democrat denial persists, internal debates continue over whether party leaders are confronting reality or avoiding accountability.
