A retired schoolteacher named Dan Sullivan could hand Democrats control of the United States Senate.
Not Sen. Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent fighting to keep his seat. The other Dan Sullivan. A registered Republican who shares the senator’s name, opposes the MAGA movement, and just won a court battle to stay on Alaska’s November ballot despite the state GOP’s attempts to remove him.
The Trump administration isn’t taking any chances. On Wednesday, the Department of Justice issued two subpoenas to investigate whether Sullivan Jr. entered the race with the intent to confuse voters.
It’s the kind of chaos that could tip the balance of power in Washington.
Last week’s open primary results sent shockwaves through Republican circles when former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola opened a commanding lead over the incumbent senator, pulling 48.1 percent to Sullivan’s 42.7 percent. That margin has held as votes continue to be counted.
With Republicans clinging to a 53-47 Senate majority, Democrats need to flip four seats to take control. Three months ago, that seemed impossible. Now, with the American economy struggling under the weight of the Iran War and Trump’s approval numbers cratering to historic lows, the calculus has changed dramatically.
Alaska, a state Trump carried twice, is suddenly in play.
The primary doesn’t determine the winner outright. Alaska’s nonpartisan system advances the top four vote-getters to a November general election decided by ranked-choice voting. Both Peltola and Sen. Sullivan cleared that bar easily. But they won’t be alone on the ballot.
Sullivan Jr., the retired schoolteacher, will be there too. And his message couldn’t be more different from the Republican establishment’s.
“I don’t think the Republican Party needs to be the MAGA party,” Sullivan Jr. told the New York Times. “My dad and my grandfather were Republicans who taught me my work skills, my skills to be a good father and a husband and how to be a kind human being.”
Republican strategists are bracing for a race that could come down to a fraction of a point. In Alaska’s ranked-choice system, where second-choice votes can prove decisive, even a marginal candidate sharing the incumbent’s name could prove catastrophic.
Peltola, for her part, has run as an independent operator despite her Democratic registration. The first Alaska Native and first woman to represent the state in Congress, she’s defended the oil industry, supported gun rights, and shown willingness to work with Trump when it benefits her constituents.
Her campaign slogan says it all: “Fish, Family, and Freedom.”
That centrist positioning has frustrated Alaska’s progressive base, but it’s built her a coalition that crosses party lines. And another wild card could help her cause. Progressive Democrat David Leslie clings to fourth place by a mere 17 votes. If he makes the general election ballot, his supporters’ second-choice votes could flow directly to Peltola in the ranked-choice tally.
Alaska has never played by conventional political rules. Voters and candidates regularly buck the simple logic of the two-party system. What works in the lower 48 doesn’t always translate to a state where independence isn’t just a political stance but a way of life.
That’s what makes this race so dangerous for Republicans. In a normal state, an incumbent senator with the full backing of his party would cruise to reelection. In Alaska, with two candidates named Dan Sullivan on the ballot, a popular former congresswoman running on guns and oil, and a ranked-choice system that rewards coalition-building over base turnout, nothing is certain.
Control of the Senate may ultimately rest with voters most Americans have never thought much about, in a state most will never visit.
