Vice President JD Vance watched a 32-point lead over Secretary of State Marco Rubio evaporate in a matter of months, with new polling showing the two Trump administration heavyweights now locked in a statistical tie for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
The dramatic shift, revealed in an Emerson College Polling survey, has Vance at 36% and Rubio at 35% among GOP primary voters. Back in February, Vance commanded 52% support to Rubio’s 20%. That’s a swing of historic proportions in the early jockeying for the post-Trump era.
“The potential 2028 contenders now compete evenly,” said Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling’s executive director, noting that support has “shifted significantly” in Rubio’s direction.
The rest of the field isn’t even close. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, both of whom ran for president in 2024, sit at roughly 5% each. About 15% of Republican voters remain undecided.
A generational divide marks the current landscape. Younger GOP voters under 50 favor Vance 37% to 26%, while voters over 50 lean toward Rubio 41% to 35%.
Despite the tightening numbers, Rubio has repeatedly made clear he’d step aside for his “close friend” in the vice president’s office.
“If JD Vance runs for President, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him,” Rubio told Vanity Fair in December 2025.
The secretary of state doubled down in a May interview with NBC News: “I’ll be the first person to sign up and support him. I think JD would do great.”
As recently as July 2025, Rubio told Lara Trump of Fox News, “I think JD Vance would be a great nominee if he decides he wants to do that.”
Whether Vance actually decides to run remains an open question. The vice president has said he won’t make a decision until after the birth of his fourth child in July, according to The Washington Post.
President Trump himself has fueled speculation about a joint ticket. At a Rose Garden event on May 11, he polled the crowd on whether they preferred Vance or Rubio before describing the pair as a 2028 “Dream Team.” Last year, Trump called Vance and Rubio “a perfect ticket” and “unstoppable.”
For now, Republican voters appear genuinely torn between two men who’ve both earned Trump’s trust at the highest levels of government. The next three years will reveal whether that loyalty translates into a clear path forward for one of them, or a primary fight that tests the unity of the America First coalition.
