Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to accept an invitation to attend the January 20 inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, experts suggest. While Trump extended the gesture through incoming press secretary Karoline Leavitt, the Chinese Embassy has not provided a response. Analysts believe such a move carries significant political risks for Beijing.
Danny Russel, a former assistant secretary of state, stated that Xi attending the ceremony would be unprecedented and would diminish his stature. “Can you imagine Xi Jinping sitting outdoors in Washington, D.C., in January…surrounded by hawkish members of Congress?” Russel remarked, emphasizing the unlikely scenario.
Yun Sun of the Stimson Center echoed this sentiment, pointing to the lack of protocol or precedent for such attendance. She also highlighted Beijing’s sensitivity to Taiwan-related controversies, such as when Taiwan’s U.S. envoy attended Joe Biden’s inauguration in 2021. The presence of Taiwanese representatives could further complicate Xi’s decision.
China’s leadership prioritizes dignity and security for their officials abroad. Experts note that any visit by Xi to Washington would typically require the full ceremony of a state visit, which an inauguration would not provide. Furthermore, Trump’s stated intention to impose tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods creates additional tension, making Xi’s presence politically untenable.
While Xi’s attendance is improbable, planning for a potential meeting between the two leaders after Trump’s inauguration is likely underway. Trump’s preference for direct engagement with adversaries might prompt an early bilateral discussion. However, Beijing remains cautious, recalling Trump’s prior outreach in 2017, which was followed by aggressive trade policies in 2018.
China is adopting a “wait-and-see” approach as Trump prepares to assume office, with officials ready to respond to potential policy escalations. Experts suggest that Xi’s absence at the inauguration reflects Beijing’s broader strategy of minimizing risks amid heightened U.S.-China tensions.
