A new report reveals that Venezuela’s military is preparing for a prolonged guerrilla war should President Trump order a U.S. ground invasion to remove Nicolás Maduro from power. Documents and sources obtained by Reuters indicate Maduro’s forces intend to rely on sabotage, decentralization, and nationwide disorder rather than conventional combat.
The United States has increased military pressure, positioning more than 10 U.S. warships — including the USS Gerald R. Ford — in the Caribbean. A Marine Expeditionary Unit capable of an amphibious assault has also deployed as part of President Trump’s effort to curb drug trafficking routed through Venezuela. Maduro, fully aware his 123,000-strong National Bolivarian Armed Forces lack U.S. capabilities, has opted for an asymmetrical strategy.
According to the report, Venezuela plans a “prolonged resistance” campaign, ordering military units to split into more than 280 locations across the country to conduct sabotage operations. High-ranking officials described this as a guerrilla approach intended to make the nation ungovernable for any leader installed by the United States. Maduro has also deployed 5,000 Russian-made Igla missiles for surprise attacks and strengthened routes leading to Caracas with anti-vehicle barriers and heavy machinery.
Despite claims of an 8-million-member civilian militia, analysts told Reuters that only a small number of loyalists would likely participate. The Venezuelan military suffers from poor training, low wages, widespread desertions, and deteriorating Soviet-era equipment. Although Caracas still operates roughly 20 Sukhoi fighter jets, experts say they would be no match for U.S. aircraft such as B-2 bombers.
The report also outlines a planned “anarchization” tactic, in which intelligence services and regime loyalists would create disorder in Caracas to prevent stability under any post-Maduro authority. Armed motorcycle gangs previously used to confront protesters could serve as militia forces, and drug-trafficking groups operating inside Venezuela may also engage in combat if threatened.
Maduro denies ties to criminal networks and claims the United States is manufacturing allegations to justify seizing Venezuela’s oil reserves. Meanwhile, tensions remain high along the nation’s western border, where Colombian guerrilla groups like the National Liberation Army operate. Whether any third-party actors would intervene in a conflict remains unclear.
As U.S. military pressure mounts and the regime braces for conflict, the scale of Maduro’s preparations signals a readiness to plunge Venezuela into chaos rather than relinquish control. The coming weeks will determine whether the standoff intensifies or diplomacy prevails.
