The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that annual deaths in the U.S. will surpass births by 2033, marking a significant demographic shift. This projection, released in the CBO’s annual demographic outlook, indicates a faster timeline than previously estimated, as the trend was expected to occur around 2040.
The U.S. population is anticipated to reach 350 million by the end of 2025, a 4 million increase from prior estimates. However, by 2054, the population is now forecasted to rise only to 372 million, compared to the previous estimate of 383 million. This reflects a population growth rate of just 6.3% over the next 30 years, signaling a notable slowdown.
The CBO attributes this decline to restrictive immigration policies and persistently low fertility rates. The report highlights that net immigration is expected to play a larger role in population growth over time, as natural growth (births minus deaths) becomes insufficient. From 2033 onward, immigration will account for all U.S. population growth, as fertility rates are projected to remain below replacement levels.
“Without immigration, the population would shrink beginning in 2033,” the report states, underscoring immigration’s critical role in sustaining population levels.
This demographic slowdown aligns with broader global trends in developed nations experiencing declining birth rates and aging populations. Policymakers will likely face increasing challenges related to workforce sustainability, economic growth, and social security funding as the ratio of working-age individuals to retirees continues to shrink.
The report also hints at potential policy implications, particularly regarding immigration reform and family-support initiatives, to address the looming demographic shift. These changes will be pivotal in shaping the nation’s economic and social landscape over the coming decades.
