Intelligence sources from the U.S. and Israel estimate that only about 20 of the 251 hostages taken by Hamas on October 7, 2023, remain alive. This figure, shared during ongoing negotiations in Qatar, includes civilians and female Israeli soldiers but excludes male soldiers, whose inclusion might slightly increase the count.
Public estimates suggest the number could be closer to 40. However, neither the Israeli government nor the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has confirmed these figures. Israeli officials state that publicly 100 hostages are possibly alive, with 36 confirmed dead, though the private working number is much lower.
Hamas has reportedly admitted to holding dozens of dead hostages, complicating the situation. Some captives are believed to be held by tribal clans or other groups in Gaza, further obscuring the exact count. Analysts, like Irina Tsukerman of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, cite Hamas’s deliberate vagueness and the involvement of multiple factions as reasons for conflicting reports.
President-elect Donald Trump has been briefed on the situation and has prioritized the hostages’ release. Trump has warned of severe consequences if American hostages are not freed by his January 20 inauguration. At a Mar-a-Lago press conference, he vowed, “All hell will break out in the Middle East… It will not be good for Hamas.”
Hamas took 251 hostages, including Israelis, foreigners, and soldiers, during its October 2023 attack. Over 100 were released in a December ceasefire. Negotiations involving Israel, Hamas, and Qatar continue, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sending IDF, Shin Bet, and Mossad representatives to Doha last week.
Critics blame the Biden administration for delays in military action that allegedly worsened the hostages’ plight. A senior Israeli source accused Biden of using “blackmail and every conceivable threat” to prevent Israel’s assault on Rafah, allowing Hamas time to move or kill captives. Despite targeted strikes in Rafah last May, most hostages remain unaccounted for.
Negotiators remain cautiously optimistic about a breakthrough. Senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzook recently expressed hope for progress in Qatar-led talks.
