Originally published June 26, 2023 7:03 am PDT
On Friday, several audio recordings were posted on Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Telegram channel in which he that his units had come under attack from his own country’s military authorities.
The Wagner Group is a pro-Russian paramilitary organization that has played a significant part in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The Russian Defense Ministry slammed Prigozhin’s allegations of a strike on Wagner as fake news.
Wagner units that supported Prigozhin headed to Rostov-on-Don and toward Russia’s capital.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a televised address to the nation on Saturday, described the Wagner group’s actions as armed mutiny and betrayal, vowing to take tough measures against the mutineers, according to Russia’s news agency.
The ordeal ended Saturday without armed conflict, as Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko coordinated with Putin and Prigozhin, resulting in Wagner turning its units around and returning to field camps.
The Kremlin said the criminal case against the Wagner chief would be dropped and Prigozhin himself went to Belarus.
Russian authorities also pledged not to prosecute Wagner troops who took part in the mutiny.
However, U.S. intelligence agencies had alerted top military and administration officials as early as Wednesday about a potential military assault against prominent Russian defense authorities, plotted by Prigozhin.
This is according to insiders privy to the situation, cited by The New York Times.
The U.S. had reportedly stumbled upon signs of Prigozhin’s impending plans a few days prior, prompting the intelligence community to generate a comprehensive evaluation.
Echoing past patterns of anticipation, the United States demonstrated foreknowledge of brewing incidents in Russia, akin to the 2021 forewarning when intelligence units had predicted Putin’s incursion into Ukraine.
However, unlike the Ukraine situation where U.S. officials chose to publicly declassify the intelligence in a bid to deter Putin, they decided to stay mum on Prigozhin’s schemes.
Apparently, the fear was that speaking out could provide an avenue for Putin to lay the blame for a potential coup on them.
Additionally, the U.S. didn’t seem to have any intent to help Putin dodge a significant split within his circle of support.
The probability of an internal feud escalating into a full-blown conflict between Prigozhin, also known as “Putin’s chef” from his days in St. Petersburg, and high-ranking Russian defense officials were seen as highly credible and cause for alarm.
Known for his ruthless tactics, Prigozhin’s success in toppling these officials could potentially establish him as an unpredictable leader, further destabilizing an already volatile situation in the nuclear-armed rival nation.
Although the exact timeline of when the U.S. became privy to the plot remains unclear, intelligence authorities did conduct briefings with defense and administration officials on Wednesday.
Come Thursday, as further confirmation of the plot was obtained, a select group of congressional leaders was briefed by intelligence officials, according to The Times.
