Originally published July 31, 2023 7:11 am PDT
In the inaugural New York Times/Siena College poll for the 2024 presidential race, former President Donald J. Trump is revealed to be in a commanding position, far outpacing his Republican rivals, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Trump’s lead over DeSantis among the anticipated Republican primary voters is a striking 37 points on a national level.
Trump’s hold over the Republican electorate appears impervious to demographics or geography, as his popularity remains resolute in virtually every category and across the country.
The Times/Siena poll showcases Trump’s unshaken grip over the Republican Party, and his broad support among diverse demographic groups, encompassing both genders, various age groups, different education levels, and locales ranging from urban to rural.
These findings reveal Republican voters are unfazed by the mounting legal issues surrounding the former president.
DeSantis’s key campaign propositions, including his assertions of being more electable and a more effective governor than Trump, have not gained the expected traction among the party’s primary electorate.
Trump is the preferred choice even among those Republicans who are driven by issues such as combating “radical woke ideology,” the very issues DeSantis has championed in his campaign.
Overall, the poll reflects a distinct lead for Trump over DeSantis, with 54 percent to 17 percent respectively.
Other potential candidates lag far behind, with no one else gaining more than 3 percent support from the poll respondents.
The poll also uncovers more concerning indicators for DeSantis’s campaign.
His weakest performance is observed among the most substantial and influential factions of the Republican Party.
He managed to garner only 9 percent of votes from Republicans aged 65 and older, and just 13 percent from those without a college degree.
Those identifying themselves as “very conservative” showed a strong preference for Trump over DeSantis, with a 50-point margin (65 percent to 15 percent).
Apart from DeSantis, no significant Trump contender has emerged.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina each received a meager 3 percent support.
Former Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy mustered support from just 2 percent of those polled.
The poll further suggests that even in a hypothetical one-on-one match-up with Trump, DeSantis would still fall short, trailing 62 percent to 31 percent.
This underscores a harsh reality for those within the Republican Party hoping to counter Trump’s influence.
Despite concerns about repeating the divisions of the 2016 primary, the poll indicates that Trump remains poised to overcome even a consolidated opposition.
