Originally published July 10, 2023 6:00 pm PDT
According to the latest poll by the Florida Atlantic University Mainstreet PolCom Lab, ex-President Donald Trump is presently leading the GOP presidential race in the Sunshine State.
In the poll, he is ahead of Florida’s current Governor, Ron DeSantis, by 20 points among likely voters for next year’s GOP Primary.
The poll involved 315 likely voters and indicates Trump holding a 50% support, compared to DeSantis’s 30%.
Other candidates like author Vivek Ramaswamy, U.S. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, Chris Christie, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, and Mike Pence trail significantly behind, each securing only 2%-4% support.
A portion of respondents, 7% to be exact, are still undecided on their choice.
The poll offers a surprising note on gender demographics.
Despite DeSantis reportedly struggling to secure support from female voters in other polls, in this case, he managed to perform slightly better among women, trailing Trump by 19 points, as opposed to 21 points among male voters. Interestingly, Trump demonstrates a vast lead among nonbinary Republican Primary voters with a 65% to 24% lead.
The poll also uncovers significant geographic variation in voter preferences.
DeSantis leads Trump by a slim margin in Duval with 37% to Trump’s 36%, and he stays competitive in Northwest and Southwest Florida.
However, his numbers take a hit in the Tampa area (31% vs Trump’s 56%), Orlando area (29% vs 45%), and Miami-Dade (11% vs 70%).
Income level is another key factor.
With the exception of respondents with an annual income of $200,000 or more, where DeSantis leads 39% to 25%, Trump takes the lead across all income groups.
He also has a strong lead among Hispanic voters (39 points), Black voters (26%), and White working-class voters (27 points).
However, the tides turn with White college-educated voters where DeSantis holds a slight lead, 41% to Trump’s 40%.
Kevin Wagner, a professor of political science at FAU, pointed out, “The poll highlights Donald Trump’s quite durable support. He does especially well with White working-class voters, who have consistently formed a steadfast base for the former President. This persistent support continues to bolster Trump’s strong and steady position within the party.”
When the poll narrows down to a two-way race between Trump and DeSantis, the ex-President still maintains a lead with 54% support compared to DeSantis’s 37%.
However, DeSantis takes the Duval region in this scenario with 45% support, and continues to lead among the college-educated and those earning more than $200,000 annually.
