Senior economic officials say American taxpayers may see unusually large federal tax refunds in the first quarter of 2026, with many households getting $1,000 to $2,000 or more. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told media that refunds could total $100 billion to $150 billion under the tax changes enacted in President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, largely because workers did not adjust withholding after new provisions took effect.
Bessent and administration officials explained that the estimates reflect retroactive tax relief that affects 2025 tax returns. Since many taxpayers continued withholding at previous levels, the IRS expects refunds to be “very large” when people file early next year. This could translate to thousands of dollars in tax relief returning directly to families’ bank accounts.
Key elements of the new tax law cited in official projections include elimination of federal tax on tips and overtime, deductions for auto loan interest, and expanded relief for certain income brackets. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said these changes will provide meaningful relief for working and middle-income families when refunds begin.
President Trump has publicly predicted that 2026 will deliver the largest tax refund seasonever, emphasizing the impact of the new law on everyday Americans’ pocketbooks. He referenced expanded tax cuts and relief provisions aimed at supporting workers, seniors on Social Security, and service industry employees.
While many taxpayers are poised to benefit from larger refunds, Republican lawmakers caution that estimates may vary based on income levels, filing status, and withholdings. A recent analysis by House GOP leaders suggests refunds could average about $1,000 more than typical — though results will not be uniform for all households.
Tax professionals recommend that people ready their paperwork and file early once the 2026 IRS tax season opens. With refund timelines tied to direct deposit and submission methods, planning now may help citizens receive their funds sooner.
This projected boost in refunds arrives amid broader economic discussions on inflation, wage growth, and consumer spending, with some analysts saying the increased cash flow could provide a welcome shot in the arm for household budgets.
