Trafalgar Poll: Youngkin Has 2.3-Point Lead in Virginia Gubernatorial Race

One of the most accurate pollsters from the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections has Virginia GOP candidate Glenn Youngkin with a 2.3-point lead over Democrat Terry McAuliffe on the eve of Election Day.

Trafalgar Group pollster Robert Cahaly tweeted Monday:

“FINAL @trafalgar_group #VAGov race #Poll #Youngkin has 2.3% lead which could grow by capturing most late deciders.

  • 49.4% @GlennYoungkin.
  • 47.1% @TerryMcAuliffe.
  • 1.9% Third Party/Write-In.
  • 1.6% Undecided

“Conducted 10/29-31 #vapol See Report.

“This race is neck and neck,” Youngkin told rallygoers Monday in Richmond, Virginia, in comments aired live on Newsmax‘s “John Bachman Now.”

“We got to get it done tomorrow. The entire nation is watching us.”

The race between Youngkin and McAuliffe, who has had former President Barack Obama, President Joe Biden, and Vice President Kamala Harris stump for him, is considered a bellwether for the support for the current administration and Democrats’ control of Congress.

The fact the final poll puts the race within the margin of error in the final days before polls close Tuesday night puts an onus on the late ground game of both candidates. Youngkin is completing a 10-day bus tour in the state.

Youngkin has sided squarely with parents against indoctrination in schools and has vowed to oppose Biden administration vaccine mandates in his state. McAuliffe, who served as governor of the state starting during the Obama administration, has adopted many of the Obama-Biden policy positions, pitting an Obama-era progressive Democrat against a conservative in a key battleground state before the 2022 midterm elections.

Newsmax’s John Gizzi reported a potential Republican sweep in Virginia looms Tuesday night.

“I think Youngkin will win by around 3%,” historian Henry Olsen told Gizzi.

“There’s a 50-60% chance of winning the House of Delegates if Youngkin wins by 3 – about 40-50% chance if he wins by 1.”

Trafalgar was one of the most accurate polls in both the 2016 and the 2020 presidential elections.

The Trafalgar Group conducted its final Virginia gubernatorial poll Oct. 29-31 among 1,081 likely 2021 Virginia general election voters. The margin of error of the poll is plus or minus 2.98 percentage points.