The collapse of Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has thrown Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government into turmoil, sparking speculation about whether it can survive its full term or will face an early election. Rayner, once one of Labour’s few popular figures, resigned after revelations she underpaid taxes on her £800,000 second home, dealing a heavy blow to the party.
Her departure forced a sweeping reshuffle. Longtime anti-Trump critic David Lammy was elevated to Deputy Prime Minister, while pro-Palestine activist Shabana Mahmood became the first Muslim woman to head the Home Office. Mahmood’s track record, including votes for open borders and responsibility for last year’s mass release of prisoners, has raised doubts over her ability to manage Britain’s border crisis.
The reshuffle has fueled speculation about Labour’s stability. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage predicted that internal splits and a battle to replace Rayner could force an election by 2027. Number 10 quickly denied this, with Chief Secretary Darren Jones insisting Labour “is not going to split and there won’t be an early election.”
Even Labour insiders, however, acknowledge the danger. Former Blair cabinet member Lord Falconer admitted the government has “not connected appropriately with the public” and warned of looming trouble unless Starmer charts a clear course. Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who survived the reshuffle, is reportedly preparing another round of tax hikes this fall—a move critics warn will deepen economic pessimism.
Top pollster Sir John Curtice delivered perhaps the harshest verdict, branding the lack of political direction a “gaping hole” at the heart of Downing Street. “The public have repeatedly said … that they don’t know what he stands for,” Curtice said, arguing the absence of leadership explains Labour’s collapse in popularity just a year after winning power.
