If you listen to Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin’s information apparatus, it sounds as though Russia’s war in Ukraine is progressing toward a favorable outcome for Moscow. In recent months Russian officials have reiterated aggressive rhetoric and spiked state media funding to sustain public confidence in their long-running invasion. Meanwhile, diplomatic moves—including short-term pauses in strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure after direct appeals from Donald Trump—have been cast by the Kremlin as proof of Russian leverage in peace negotiations that remain deeply troubled. Despite these narratives, the. . .
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