The Republican Party sees promising prospects for achieving a Senate majority this year, with potential victories looming in Maryland and Montana, and a smoother trajectory towards flipping West Virginia.
“This is a good map for Republicans,” remarked Dave Peterson, a political science professor at Iowa State University, speaking to The Hill. “There’s a long way to go, and a lot of other primaries out there that could hurt them. But I think this is a good year for them.”
Senate Democrats, holding a narrow 51-49 margin, face the challenge of defending 23 seats this cycle, including several in red states such as Montana, West Virginia, and Ohio.
In traditionally blue Maryland, the GOP has secured the candidacy of popular former Gov. Larry Hogan in their bid to flip the seat. Meanwhile, in Montana, Republicans convinced Rep. Matt Rosendale to withdraw from the GOP primary, paving the way for businessman Tim Sheehy’s nomination, a choice preferred by Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., who leads the Senate Republican campaign team.
Additionally, Sen. Joe Manchin’s decision not to pursue another term in West Virginia virtually ensures the seat for the GOP, according to reports from The Hill.
“One reason that it’s still their chamber to lose is because they’ve been able to expand the map, and Democrats are unable to expand the map, they have to protect the map,” observed David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University.
“So fundamentally, at base, Democrats are in a protect mode, and Republicans are in an expansive mode. Republicans remain on offense.”
GOP strategist Ford O’Connell concurred, noting that Republicans have “a really good map” that they “have to take advantage of.”
With GOP West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice vying for Manchin’s seat, Republicans feel they already have 50 seats secured. The potential to unseat Montana’s Democrat Sen. Jon Tester or Ohio’s Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown could push them to the majority threshold of 51, The Hill highlighted.
Democrats are defending an additional four Senate races in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Republicans face the challenge of defending only two seats: Sen. Rick Scott in Florida and Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas.
“You already have a pretty clear path to 50. What you’re focused on now is adding additional seats for when it comes time to move legislation through the Senate,” emphasized one unnamed GOP operative to The Hill.
“Senate Republicans have to still run through the tape and add at least one more seat to guarantee themselves a majority regardless of the presidential outcome, and some of the recent developments bolster their hopes at doing just that,” the operative added.
