The pollster who predicted “silent” Trump voters in the 2016 presidential election would lead him to victory is now saying the same for the upcoming election.
QUICK FACTS:
- Robert Cahaly, one of the few pollsters who accurately predicted Trump winning the 2016 election due to “hidden voters,” is now predicting similar outcomes for the 2022 midterms.
- “In 2016 Trump supporters were called ‘Deplorables’ and other unflattering names,” Cahaly tweeted. “This was a major contributor to the ‘shy Trump voter’ phenomenon that ‘most’ polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.”
- “In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with ‘Woke’ culture found themselves being ‘canceled’ or ‘doxed’. This led to ‘hidden voters’ that ‘most’ polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations,” he continued.
POLLSTER ROBERT CAHALY ON SILENT VOTERS INFLUENCING THE ELECTION OUTCOME:
“I call this new group ‘submerged voters’. They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls. At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate,” Cahaly said.
BACKGROUND:
- Calahy gained national attention in 2016 when he bet the future of his company on his team’s predictions showing an astounding 300+ Trump victory and wouldn’t back down.
- “On Wednesday I’m either going to be the guy who got it right, or nobody is going to listen to me anymore,” the Senior Strategist said days before the 2016 presidential election.
- Calahy mentioned his method of not counting secret or “hidden” voters, which ultimately led to his polling methodology.
- “I don’t know who else would agree with this, is the fact that taking people on their face for what they were answering was not a smart move because people were not being forthright as to who they were supporting,” Calahy said at the time.
