A stunning polling upset has rocked the New York City Democratic primary, according to an Emerson College poll released Monday. Zohran Mamdani surged from 1% to 32% and overtook former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in a ranked-choice simulation.
In the first round, Cuomo led with 35%, Mamdani trailed at 32%, and Brad Lander held 13%. But by the eighth round, Mamdani reached 51.8% compared to Cuomo’s 48.2%, marking a dramatic polling upset. Emerson’s Spencer Kimball emphasized, “Over five months, Mamdani’s support has surged from 1% to 32%… putting him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll.”
Much of Mamdani’s climb came from absorbing Lander’s supporters—20% of voters who largely shifted to Mamdani when Lander exited. Lander had openly cross-endorsed him, and the Working Families Party discouraged ranking Cuomo.
Early voters already cast their ballots favored Mamdani, 41% to 31%, while those planning to vote on primary day leaned 36% to 31% toward Cuomo. Generational and demographic lines split sharply: voters under 50 backed Mamdani 2‑to‑1, while Cuomo led older voters and minority groups. White voters sided with Mamdani 61% to 39%, and Asian voters supported him 79% to 21%.
This signals deep rifts within the Democratic base. Conservatives and moderates should take note: Mamdani’s unexpected rise exposes vulnerable territory in a symbolically liberal city. As Kimball put it, “Mamdani’s support has surged,” and this proves upset elections can shake entrenched political orders.
