Fewer than 75% of Black likely voters in Georgia intend to support Kamala Harris in the upcoming November election, representing a significant decline compared to Joe Biden’s success with this demographic in 2020, based on a recent poll.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, through research conducted by the University of Georgia’s survey center, reported that 73.8% of surveyed Black voters in the state indicated their preference for Harris, while 7.6% plan to back Trump, leaving 17.6% undecided. This marks a considerable drop for the Democratic candidate since the 2020 election, in which 88% of Black Georgians voted for Biden, as per a CNN exit poll. Within the same poll, Trump emerged with nearly a four-point lead overall among Georgia voters, securing 47% compared to Harris’s 43.4%.
Harris has faced setbacks in crucial states recently; however, a notable polling aggregation site still shows her leading nationally. An InsiderAdvantage survey found Trump in front in essential swing states like Arizona and Nevada by margins of 2.5 points and a slim 0.2 points, respectively.
A Monday analysis by FiveThirtyEight indicated Harris holds a 1.8-point lead nationally, which is a decrease from her previous 2.4-point lead on October 14. The site now recommends Trump as the likely winner overall. The Electoral College’s structure means that Harris could receive a majority of the popular vote yet still lose, similar to Hillary Clinton’s experience in 2016.
The University of Georgia’s survey, which included 1,000 likely voters between October 7 and 16, had a margin of error of 3.1% and suggested that Trump’s slight 3.6-point lead represents essentially “a statistical tie.” The poll revealed Trump leading among white voters by 66.1% to Harris’s 28.4%. Conversely, Harris garnered support from voters of “other” races, leading with 52.7% compared to Trump’s 39.2%. There was also a significant gender gap noted, with Trump surpassing Harris among male voters 59.3% to 28.3%, while Harris led among women 55.4% to 37.2%.
Morgan Ackley, communications director for the Georgia Republican Party, stated to Newsweek: “The most recent polling shows what Team Trump already knew, Georgians from Catoosa to Camden County are tired of the cost-of-living skyrocketing and drugs flowing across the open border into our communities. President Trump is winning or tied in every battleground, including Georgia, because his message is resonating with voters across the country. This November Georgia will say no to Kamala Harris and yes to Donald Trump and his America First policies.”
On October 2-8, Howard University’s Initiative on Public Opinion surveyed 981 Black likely voters across battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Of those surveyed, 83% expressed intent to vote for Harris, while 8% were in favor of Trump, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
Additionally, a YouGov poll for CBS News conducted between October 8 and 11 found that 87% of Black voters were inclined to support Harris against 12% for Trump. A 2021 report from Catalist, a firm linked to the Democratic party, indicated that Biden secured 90% of the Black vote nationwide in 2020.
Trump has actively sought to engage Black voters, particularly Black men. Recently, Harris unveiled her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men,” which aims to offer up to one million forgivable loans of $20,000 for Black entrepreneurs.
Should she win in November, Harris would make history as the first Black woman and the second Black person overall to become U.S. president.
