North Carolina could reach a major demographic turning point within the next decade, with deaths projected to exceed births by 2033, according to new projections from the state’s chief demographer.
Michael Cline, North Carolina’s state demographer, said that unless fertility rates or life expectancy rise significantly, the state’s future population growth will depend entirely on migration.
“Unless fertility or life expectancy rise significantly, future population growth will depend entirely on domestic and international migration,” Cline wrote in his report. “As the gap between births and deaths widens, population growth will slow unless the state continues to attract more people than it loses.”
The report warns that North Carolina could soon begin experiencing what demographers call a “natural decrease,” when the number of deaths surpasses the number of births.
International migration is already playing a growing role in the state’s population growth. Since 2020, nearly one-third of North Carolina’s population increase has come from international immigration.
According to Cline, immigration may help delay the projected tipping point.
“Because immigrants tend to arrive as young adults and often come from countries with higher fertility rates, the exact timing of this shift depends heavily on future immigration levels,” he wrote.
While international migration has become increasingly important in North Carolina, other states rely even more heavily on it for population growth.
Since 2020, international migration has accounted for about 59 percent of Florida’s population growth and 40 percent of Texas’ growth, according to the report.
North Carolina currently ranks ninth in the nation for international migration.
Nationally, demographic trends suggest the United States may also approach a similar milestone in the coming decades.
Some projections estimate the U.S. could experience its first year where deaths exceed births as early as 2030, while other estimates place the tipping point closer to 2042.
Despite declining birth rates, North Carolina continues to attract a large number of residents from other parts of the United States.
Between July 2024 and July 2025, approximately 84,000 people moved to North Carolina from other states.
The state saw even larger inflows during the COVID-19 era, with about 104,000 new residents arriving from other states between July 2020 and July 2021.
Cline said that migration has become the primary driver of population growth in the state.
“For North Carolina, as in much of the country, net migration has become the primary source of population growth,” he wrote.
Declining birth rates and an aging population are contributing to the shift. Many counties across the state are already experiencing natural decrease.
Since 2020, natural population growth has accounted for only about 6 percent of North Carolina’s total population increase.
