New York could be on track to lose two seats in the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2030 census as its population growth lags behind faster-growing states, according to a new analysis by the nonpartisan Redistricting Network. The study suggests the Empire State could shed nearly 10% of its congressional representation, a dramatic shift that would reshape political power in Washington.
The findings highlight a broader national trend in which states with slower population growth — particularly those with higher taxes and cost of living — are slipping in influence, while states with booming populations gain seats. In addition to New York’s potential losses, California could see up to four seats vanish, Rhode Island could lose one, and Illinois up to two. Conversely, states like Texas and Florida are projected to gain four seats each, reflecting their rapid growth and continued appeal to domestic migrants.
Experts attribute the shift in part to outmigration from high-cost, high-tax states. Previous studies have shown New York residents moving to states such as Florida, South Carolina, and Texas, where lower taxes and cost-of-living advantages are attracting new residents and businesses.
Under the U.S. Constitution, congressional districts are reapportioned every 10 years to reflect population changes recorded by the census. The results also influence how state legislative maps and local precincts are drawn. New York already lost a seat after the 2020 census, dropping from 27 to 26 House districts, and has seen similar losses following past decennial counts dating back decades.
The report’s release comes amid political debate within New York over the causes of demographic decline. Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul has blamed housing shortages and affordability challenges as key factors driving people out of the state, advocating for expanded housing stock and more affordable options.
Republicans, however, have sharpened their criticism, pointing to New York’s high tax burden, regulatory environment, and rising costs as primary drivers of outmigration. A statement from the state GOP slammed one-party Democratic control, arguing that New Yorkers are departing in search of greater economic freedom and opportunity elsewhere. The spokesman called the situation one reason voters will look for change in the next gubernatorial election.
The discussion over population loss has also spilled into redistricting politics. Hochul recently floated a plan to redraw New York’s congressional districts mid-decade in a way that could favor Democrats, prompting backlash from Republicans and advocacy groups who argue that altering maps outside the normal cycle would disenfranchise voters and undermine the principle of equal representation.
With just a few years until the 2030 census, the debate over New York’s future political clout is already heating up, as leaders on both sides of the aisle lay out competing visions for how to respond to the looming shift in congressional power.
