New Data Show mRNA COVID Jab Less than 36% Effective in Adults—FDA Told Us Shot Was 95% Effective in 2020: Peer-Reviewed ‘Expert Review of Vaccines’ Journal


New data published Wednesday in the peer-reviewed medical journal Expert Review of Vaccines show that Pfizer and Moderna’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are less than 36% effective against coronavirus infection.

The multicenter study in Japan evaluated primary dose vaccination effectiveness of BNT162b2 (Pfizer) or mRNA-1273 (Moderna) among individuals aged 16 to 64.

Results showed that primary vaccination was only 35.6% effective within 90 days of completion.

The study’s findings showed that the drug’s effectiveness decreased further to 32.3% at 91 to 180 days and 33.6% after 180 days of completion of primary vaccination.

“For BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 analysis among individuals aged 16 to 64 years, vaccine effectiveness of primary vaccination was 35.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 19.0–48.8%) within 90 days, 32.3% (95% CI, 20.7–42.2%) at 91 to 180 days, and 33.6% (95% CI, 18.5–45.8%) at more than 180 days after the completion of primary vaccination, respectively,” the study authors write.

These results confirm that mRNA shots provide less than 36% protection against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections.


In December 2020, When Pfizer applied for emergency use authorization (EUA) for its vaccine, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) claimed that Pfizer’s initial Phase 3 clinical data “surpassed expectations” with 95% efficacy for the prevention of COVID, Yale Medicine reported.

Moderna’s data at the same time was similar to Pfizer’s, as it also “showed about 95% efficacy for prevention of COVID-19,” according to Yale Medicine.

If the new study from Japan is correct, then the FDA was incorrect about its assessment of Pfizer and Moderna’s COVID vaccines’ effectiveness by approximately 60 percentage points.


Moreover, research published last month in The Lancet confirmed that natural immunity acquired from a coronavirus infection—as opposed to vaccination—can provide strong and long-lasting protection against severe illness and death.

The paper found that, for all variants, infection-acquired immunity reduced the risk of hospitalization and death from a COVID reinfection by 88.9% for at least 10 months.

That study analyzed data from 65 studies in 19 countries, representing the largest meta-analysis to date on immunity following infection.

“[O]ur analysis of the available data suggests that the level of protection afforded by previous infection is at least as high, if not higher than that provided by two-dose vaccination using high-quality mRNA vaccines (Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech),” the Lancet study authors wrote.


The Japanese study, which ran from January 1 to June 26, 2022, during the BA.1 and BA.2 epidemic, enrolled 7,931 episodes, including 3,055 test-positive cases.

The median age of the participants was 39, while 48.0% were male, with 20.5% having underlying medical conditions.

Read the full journal publication below: