With the 2028 presidential race still more than two years away, the Democratic Party finds itself adrift, with 18% of its own voters unable to pick a favorite from a crowded field of potential candidates.
A new Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday shows former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and California Gov. Gavin Newsom locked in a tight battle for early frontrunner status, but neither man has managed to break away from the pack. Buttigieg pulled 18% support among Democrat primary voters while Newsom trailed closely at 16%.
The numbers reveal a party still searching for direction after President Donald Trump’s decisive 2024 victory and return to the White House.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York came in third with 11%, signaling continued strength for the progressive wing that has pushed Democrats further left on economic and social issues. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and former Vice President Kamala Harris each drew 10% support, while Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear rounded out the top tier at 9%.
“The Democratic field remains highly fluid, with no candidate breaking away from the pack at this stage,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
The survey paints a picture of a fractured coalition struggling to find its footing. Harris, who served under President Joe Biden, continues to hold support among a core bloc of Democrat voters but has failed to consolidate broader backing in early polling. Her struggles suggest the party’s base remains uncertain about elevating Biden administration figures.
Buttigieg has maintained a visible national presence through television appearances and public policy advocacy since leaving his post as transportation secretary. He previously ran for president in 2020 before dropping out and endorsing Biden.
Newsom has positioned himself as one of the Democratic Party’s most prominent governors, frequently sparring with Republican leaders on immigration, abortion, and culture war issues. His combative style has earned him attention from party activists looking for a fighter.
The poll also captured broader political headwinds facing the Trump administration. The president’s approval rating stood at 39%, with 55% disapproving of his job performance. Democrats held a significant 9-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, leading Republicans 50% to 41%.
Shapiro and Beshear, both governors who won elections in competitive states, have attracted growing attention from party strategists hunting for candidates with crossover appeal. Their ability to win in purple territory makes them intriguing options for Democrats desperate to reclaim moderate and independent voters lost in 2024.
Ocasio-Cortez has fueled speculation about a possible national campaign, though she has not announced any plans to run. The New York congresswoman has become a leading voice on the party’s left flank, championing progressive causes that energize younger voters but sometimes alienate moderates.
Recent national surveys have shown Democrats attempting to rebuild support among suburban voters and younger Americans following their 2024 losses. Party strategists have increasingly focused on economic messaging and abortion rights as they prepare for upcoming elections.
The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted May 24-25, 2026, among 1,000 likely U.S. voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
