A recent poll shows a significant shift in the political landscape among Latinos in the United States.
Although the Democratic Party still retains majority support, there’s a noticeable drift away from the party.
The Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll conducted in collaboration with Noticias Telemundo surveyed 1,116 Latino adults between June 2-9, 2023.
A startling 32% stated that they felt neither the Democrats nor the Republicans genuinely care about Latinos, showing a marked increase from 28% last October and 25% a year ago.
Just 30% felt that Democrats still have their best interests at heart, which is a cause for concern for the party.
Republicans were favored by 11%, while the remaining 15% expressed no opinion.
The Growing Importance of the Latino Vote
Latinos, constituting 18.7% of the U.S. population and continually growing, represent a crucial voting bloc.
Despite the Democrats having traditionally held sway among Latinos, there’s an evident shift.
As Chris Jackson, Ipsos pollster and senior vice president, notes, “Latinos are still more Democratic than Republican by significant margins. But when you’re talking about elections that are won by a percentage point, small losses can make a difference.”
He further warns, “The Democratic coalition is complicated in the best of times. The more pieces are in play, the harder it’s going to be for any Democratic candidate to thread the needle.”
A Notable Lack of Republican Gain
Interestingly, the waning Latino support has apparently not translated into a significant gain for Republicans.
President Biden maintains a 47% approval rating, on par with last year’s figures.
Former President Trump received a favorable opinion from 29% of respondents.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis only managed to impress 20% of the surveyed Latinos, despite his significant popularity among Florida’s Cuban-American population.
Shifting Attitudes toward Social Norms and Education
Moreover, shifting societal norms and educational issues are also impacting Latino attitudes.
A growing number—now at 50%, up from 44% in March 2022—believe that parents should hold the authority to remove school subjects they disapprove of.
There’s also been a decline in support for individual choice regarding gender identity, falling from 54% to 47% over the past year, with a steeper decline regarding teenagers, dropping from 48% to 35%.
Policy Stances: Democrats vs Republicans
In terms of policy, both parties were seen as lacking: one-third of the respondents feel Democrats handle abortion issues better, while 17% favor Republicans on the same issue.
Democrats were preferred on climate and energy issues, whereas Republicans were deemed better economic managers.
Conclusion
The poll underscores an urgent challenge for the Democrats: retaining their rapidly drifting Latino voter base.
As Republican consultant Mike Madrid remarks, “Both parties are really struggling to understand the fastest-growing segment of the electorate.”
The poll, based on a nationally representative probability sample of Hispanic/Latino adults aged 18 or older, holds a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
