A new statewide survey suggests Democratic governor Kathy Hochul is on shaky ground heading into 2026, with data showing the incumbent is against Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik in a hypothetical matchup that could upend New York politics.
According to a poll conducted by GrayHouse, Hochul leads Stefanik by just five points—48 percent to 43 percent—but once voters learn about both candidates’ records, Stefanik overtakes Hochul, edging ahead 46.4 percent to 45.9 percent. The findings point to a potential collapse in Hochul’s fragile coalition. Pollster Landon Wall described the governor’s standing as a “deeply vulnerable position,” noting her “coalition is historically fragile” and that there is a “significant growing appetite for change.”
The survey also found that Hochul’s endorsement of socialist New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani could cost her crucial support. Nearly 40 percent of voters—and 47 percent of independents—said they would be less likely to vote for a Democrat if Mamdani were elected.
Only 39 percent of respondents approve of Hochul’s performance as governor, while 56 percent disapprove. A strong 59 percent said it’s time for a new governor. Meanwhile, Stefanik enjoys a net positive approval rating statewide, positioning her as a serious challenger.
Stefanik responded to the results sharply, calling Hochul “the Worst Governor in America” and a “deeply embattled and historically unpopular failed Governor who is struggling to even gain support from her own party.”
The poll underscores a growing belief among voters that New York may be ready for a political shake-up.
