Vice President JD Vance has firmly established himself as the leading contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, securing a decisive 61% majority in the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) annual straw poll on Saturday.
Vance’s overwhelming victory reflects his growing influence within the America First movement and his appeal to the conservative base. His focus on economic nationalism, border security, and traditional values has positioned him as a natural successor to President Donald Trump.
The results further highlight the shifting dynamics within the Republican Party:
- JD Vance – 61%
- Steve Bannon – 12% (Former Trump strategist and “War Room” host)
- Ron DeSantis – 7% (Florida Governor)
- Marco Rubio & Elise Stefanik – 3% each (Secretary of State & Trump’s UN Ambassador nominee, respectively)
- Donald Trump Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, & Vivek Ramaswamy – 2% each (Gabbard serves as Director of National Intelligence; Ramaswamy is expected to announce a gubernatorial bid in Ohio next week)
- Sarah Sanders, Rick Scott, Kristi Noem, & Nikki Haley – 1% each
- Undecided – 4%
Vance’s commanding lead suggests that the populist, nationalist wing of the Republican Party remains dominant. His rise has been fueled by strong support from Trump’s base, particularly on issues like immigration enforcement, economic protectionism, and a tough stance against China.
The poll also signals the decline of establishment figures, with candidates like Nikki Haley, Rick Scott, and Kristi Noem struggling to gain traction. Even Ron DeSantis, once seen as a potential heir to Trump’s movement, placed a distant third with just 7% support.
With Trump still firmly in control of the party, CPAC’s results indicate that the movement will likely continue beyond his presidency under the leadership of figures like Vance. If these numbers hold, he will enter the 2028 primaries as the prohibitive frontrunner, shaping the future of the Republican Party for years to come.
Initially critical of Donald Trump during the 2016 election, Vance’s views evolved over time. By 2022, he sought and secured Trump’s endorsement for the U.S. Senate race in Ohio, which he won, serving from 2023 to 2025. His tenure in the Senate was marked by a focus on revitalizing manufacturing jobs, addressing the opioid crisis, and advocating for policies benefiting working-class Americans.
In 2024, recognizing Vance’s appeal in the Rust Belt and his connection to working-class voters, Trump selected him as his running mate for the presidential election. The Trump-Vance ticket emerged victorious, and Vance was inaugurated as Vice President on January 20, 2025.
