A major drop in international student starts in Fall 2025 threatens a sharp financial blow to U.S. higher education. A projected loss of 150,000 new students may shrink overall international enrollment by 15%, costing colleges and communities around $7 billion and imperiling over 60,000 jobs.
A recent NAFSA/JB International analysis projects a 30–40% decline in incoming international students in Fall 2025, compared to the previous year, due to visa interview backlogs and restrictive policy changes. Total international enrollment is expected to fall by about 15% for the 2025–26 academic year.
Visa appointment suspension between May 27 and June 18 disrupted peak-season processing. When interviews resumed, consulates implemented new social-media vetting rules, causing delays at major sending-country posts including India, China, and Nigeria. State Department data shows F‑1 visa issuance down 12% from January–April and likely plunging 80–90% in May–June year‑over‑year.
The impact—approximately $7 billion in lost tuition and living expenses and more than 60,000 jobs tied to international students—threatens campuses and local economies nationwide. Public universities in states like California, Texas, and Illinois rely heavily on full‑tuition international enrollment to support academic programs and financial aid, meaning a drop could undermine quality and access for American students.
Policy shifts under President Trump—state‑led travel bans affecting up to 19 countries and aggressive visa revocations targeting Chinese nationals and activist-affiliated students—have fueled uncertainty among prospective students and institutions.
Harvard University has challenged the Trump administration’s directive to bar its international enrollment—a legal battle emblematic of the broader tensions between immigration enforcement and academic freedom.
