One-third of the world’s oil shipments could soon be in jeopardy as Iran’s Yemeni allies escalate their stranglehold on critical shipping lanes, with leaders warning that closing the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to Israel is only the beginning.
Ansar Allah, the Yemeni political and military organization commonly known as the Houthis, announced Monday they would shut down the strategic waterway to Israeli vessels. But the real threat came in what followed: if the war continues to escalate, they’ll close the strait to everyone.
The timing couldn’t be worse for global energy markets already reeling from tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil flows through Hormuz, while another 10 percent passes through Bab-el-Mandeb. A dual closure would affect nearly a third of global oil shipments, a scenario that Iran’s leadership appears increasingly willing to trigger.
“The Strait of Hormuz is more important than a nuclear bomb,” Iran’s Deputy Parliament Speaker Ali Nikzad recently declared. “Our nuclear bomb is the Strait of Hormuz.”
The economic threat extends beyond oil disruption. When tensions forced diversions from Hormuz, Saudi Arabia rerouted more than 70 percent of its oil through Bab-el-Mandeb, providing a critical pressure valve for global markets. Closing that second strait wouldn’t just add another problem. It would eliminate the primary workaround.
Iranian leaders have made clear they can shut down both chokepoints in coordination with what they call the Resistance Axis. The Houthis reinforced that message Monday, declaring they “consider all enemy movements to be legitimate military targets for our Armed Forces.”
This development represents a dramatic shift in regional dynamics that American and Israeli policymakers appear to have miscalculated. The stated goals of severing Iran from its network of partners have not only failed but backfired. Iran’s allies have grown more capable and more willing to act in Tehran’s defense, while Iran has shown unprecedented willingness to strike back on their behalf.
That new reality was on full display this week when Iran fired as many as 30 missiles at Israel following Israeli strikes on Beirut. It marked the first time Iran had ever attacked Israel in defense of one of its regional partners.
Tehran called the strike a “formal declaration of a strategic doctrine.”
Sadegh Larijani, chairman of Iran’s Expediency Council which advises the supreme leader, explained the new posture: “If any component of the Axis of Resistance is attacked, the response will extend beyond geographical borders and will alter the regional balance of power.”
The Houthis have already demonstrated their ability to disrupt global shipping. Their entrance into the broader conflict, combined with Iran’s new willingness to strike directly in defense of partners, creates a coordinated threat that American forces have struggled to counter despite months of airstrikes on Yemeni positions.
For American consumers and businesses, the implications are clear. Energy prices remain vulnerable to decisions made in Tehran and Sanaa. The freedom of action that U.S. and Israeli forces once enjoyed in the region faces new constraints.
