Toward the end of Q1, Goldman Sachs along with virtually every other major bank, predicted that oil had nowhere else to go but up, with bank after bank hiking their oil forecast.
It also top-ticked the market, as Goldman’s Damien Courvalin writes in a note published on Sunday discussing “the path to higher oil prices”, in which he admits that despite the bank’s “balls to the wall” bullish stance on crude, “the oil rally has given way to sideways volatility since March, due to concerns over vaccination pace, EM Covid waves and the return of Iranian barrels, with the latter pushing Brent prices down from $70 to $65/bbl last week.”
Or, as the bank calculates, “last week’s large sell-off was equivalent to bringing forward by 3 months a 1 mb/d increase in global production, leaving the market likely pricing the return of Iranian barrels by late summer.”
