New analyses show the road to net-zero emissions by 2050 comes with significant but poorly understood economic and environmental costs. While efforts to quantify these impacts are starting to take shape, concerns are mounting over how to source the building blocks for the green economy.
Oxford Economics (OE) senior economist Dan Moseley told The Epoch Times that economic analysis of the path to net zero by 2050 is relatively underdeveloped, despite progress on developing climate scenarios made over the last year by bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Network for Greening the Financial System, and International Energy Agency.
“But to date, none of them have published macroeconomic scenario results which account for both transition and physical risks,” Moseley said.
Physical risks refer to extreme weather events like storms, droughts, and flooding, while transition risks stem from the process to wean the world off fossil fuels and adopt green solutions.
OE simulated a “disorderly” scenario that would be needed to reach net zero by 2050 if countries have to play catch-up for failing to take sufficient action by 2030 to meet Paris Agreement targets.
In OE’s disorderly scenario, by 2035, global gross domestic product is 1.7 percent lower than that in the baseline scenario, and by 2050, it is 3 percent lower.
OE modelling suggests that under the disorderly scenario, aggressive carbon taxes and limited renewable energy capacity would result in significant economic damage, including substantial inflationary pressure.
Canada’s feds said on April 22 that with the work announced in the 2021 budget, Canada is positioned to reduce emissions by about 36 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. At the same time the government announced a new target of 40–45 percent reductions below 2005 levels by 2030.
Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Environment and Climate Change, established an independent Net-Zero Advisory Body in February to recommend roadmaps for Canada to reach net zero by 2050.
“Within the coming weeks, the Net-Zero Advisory Body will publish a summary of net-zero pathways work completed domestically and internationally,” a spokesperson for Environment and Climate Change Canada told The Epoch Times.
Bill C-12, the proposed Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, will establish a legally binding process to set five-year emissions reduction milestones on the road to 2050, starting with the new targets set for 2030.