CNN’s data chief Harry Enten says Democrats are far from replicating past midterm surges. Current polling shows Democrats with just a 2‑point lead on the generic congressional ballot, less than half the advantage they held at this stage before the “blue wave” elections of 2006 and 2018. Those earlier cycles saw Democrats leading by about 7 points in July, a gap large enough to deliver major House gains.
Enten noted that the 2026 cycle looks more like 2024 than a historic flip year. Republicans currently hold a 12‑seat safety margin, according to the Cook Political Report, meaning Democrats have fewer competitive districts to target. “Hold the phone,” Enten warned, saying Republicans remain “very much in the game” and that the current numbers do not signal a major anti-GOP shift.
In 2006 and 2018, widespread dissatisfaction with the sitting Republican president combined with large Democratic leads created the conditions for sweeping gains. This time, while Democrats are banking on voter backlash, the data does not support a repeat of those past outcomes. The polling advantage they hold is modest, leaving the House map firmly contested.
For Republicans, this signals stability rather than vulnerability heading into the midterms. Conservative strategists are likely to emphasize family-focused policies, border security, and economic stability to consolidate support. Democrats, meanwhile, face the challenge of energizing their base without the momentum of a substantial early lead.
