An updated analysis of population trends ahead of the 2030 Census shows major changes in U.S. House representation, with traditionally blue states losing seats and fast-growing red states gaining them. New York and California are projected to lose a combined six congressional seats, while Texas and Florida are expected to see the biggest gains, underscoring a demographic shift from the Northeast and West Coast toward the Sunbelt.
Population gains in Republican-leaning states have outpaced those in Democratic strongholds. According to estimates based on 2025 population data prepared by Dr. Jonathan Cervas of Carnegie Mellon University and shared by the Redistricting Network, Texas could gain four seats, and Florida could gain an additional four seats after the next census cycle. In contrast, New York and California are projected to lose a total of six seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
New York’s delegation is expected to fall to 24 seats, a continued slide from its peak of 45 seats in the 1940s, reflecting stagnant population growth that has persisted for decades. California — currently the largest congressional delegation — could drop to 48 seats. Meanwhile, Texas is projected to rise from 38 to 42 seats and Florida from 28 to 32.
The shifting apportionment carries broader political significance. A loss of seats in populous, traditionally Democratic states could also reduce their influence in the Electoral College, making paths to presidential victory more challenging for Democratic nominees. Red states gaining representation will see increased leverage in federal legislation and funding decisions.
Additional data from related reporting confirms the blue-state population slowdown. Recent Census Bureau estimates show California among the slowest-growing of the nation’s large states, with net domestic out-migration and declines in international migration impacting growth — factors that underlie the projected loss of seats.
Other states typically associated with Democratic representation — including Illinois, Rhode Island, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — also face potential seat losses under these projections. Conversely, smaller red states like Utah and Idaho may gain one or two seats each as population shifts continue.
Experts say that these trends reinforce long-term political realignments, where economic opportunity, housing affordability, and internal migration drive people toward Sunbelt states. Should these patterns hold through the official 2030 Census count, Republicans may benefit not just in congressional representation but in broader federal power balances.
