CDC: Monkeypox ‘Unlikely to Be Eliminated in the Near Future’—Transmission Could ‘Accelerate’

A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) technical report on the current monkeypox outbreak expressed “moderate confidence” that the U.S. is “likely experiencing spread within a defined sub-population.”


CDC is closely monitoring the nature of monkeypox transmission dynamics in the United States. Following levels defined by the UK Health Security Agency, the outbreak is likely to follow one of these four transmission scenarios:

1)         Imported cases with limited onward transmission

2)         Spread within a defined sub-population

3)         Spread within multiple sub-populations or larger sub-population

4)         Significant, community-wide transmission

We assess the United States is likely experiencing spread within a defined sub-population, currently among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM); we have moderate confidence2 in this assessment.

We base this assessment on epidemiological data indicating that the vast majority of cases have thus far occurred in adult men and, of those for whom sexual activity is reported, among those reporting sexual contact with other men, both in the United States and globally. We have also observed few cases of transmission to household contacts and non-sexual contacts to date.

Transmission of the disease will not only continue indefinitely but “could accelerate in the United States over the next several months and affect an increasingly wider segment of the United States population,” according to the agency.

Given our uncertainty over how the monkeypox outbreak may unfold in the United States, we acknowledge several other less likely but possible scenarios that could transpire, some of which could require major shifts in our outbreak response posture.

Elimination: Domestic transmission in the United States is unlikely to be eliminated in the near future. While unlikely, elimination could occur if monkeypox is and remains concentrated in a high-risk subset of MSM, and vaccination efforts are focused on this exposure group and are effective in preventing infection, both factors which would cause faster declines in transmission. However, we view this scenario as unlikely due to the possibility of continued introductions and onward transmission.

Acceleration: The monkeypox outbreak could accelerate in the United States over the next several months and affect an increasingly wider segment of the United States population. This scenario is most likely to transpire if transmission occurs more readily than expected among non-MSM populations including potentially among highly connected heterosexual networks or by non-sexual routes.

The report also stated the disease could spread through animal populations.

Establishment in animal populations: There is a possibility that the monkeypox virus could establish itself in one or more animal populations in the United States, although this scenario would require that a suitable reservoir animal host exists, which is currently unknown. If such a reservoir host exists, this scenario could become more likely as case numbers rise. Several animal species in North America, both wild and domestic, may be susceptible to monkeypox infection and may be able to transmit the virus to other animals or species.

The CDC did not waste the “opportunity” to push vaccinations, even though it admitted there are “gaps” in the agency’s understanding regarding the “[e]ffectiveness of vaccine to prevent or ameliorate disease.”

[V]accination remains an important tool as the outbreak evolves and vaccination coverage, especially of second doses, increases.


On September 15, 2022, CDC announced a new opportunity for jurisdictions to submit proposals for collaborative vaccination projects intended to expand access to disproportionately affected populations experiencing vaccination disparities. Further information can be found here.


Gaps and Potential Areas of Focus:

Medical Countermeasure Effectiveness
•Effectiveness of vaccine to prevent or ameliorate disease when administered as pre- or post-exposure prophylaxis
•Decentralized trials, remote case monitoring, and improved access to interventions
•Comparing performance and safety of 1 vs. 2 dose vaccine regimens
•Novel methods for evaluating medical countermeasures during an outbreak

American Faith has compiled a list of concerns about the current monkeypox vaccine being ignored by the mainstream media:

  • The FDA package insert for Bavarian Nordic’s monkeypox vaccine states that heart problems of “special interest” occur in 1 in 75 vaccine recipients who have not already been vaccinated against smallpox, but also in 1 in 48 vaccine recipients who have already been vaccinated against smallpox. The insert indicates Bavarian Nordic added “tromethamine,” a drug given to treat heart attacks, to the vaccine.
  • The CDC reported how one in four women (25%) who became pregnant after being injected with Bavarian Nordic’s monkeypox vaccine suffered a “spontaneous abortion.”
  • The monkeypox vaccine insert also says the vaccine “has not been evaluated” for “[i]mpairment of male fertility.”
  • It is not known whether Bavarian Nordic’s monkeypox vaccine is excreted in human breastmilk: “Data are not available to assess the effects of JYNNEOS in the breastfed infant or on milk production/excretion,” according to the FDA insert.
  • The insert also warns that the monkeypox vaccine “has not been evaluated for carcinogenic or mutagenic potential,” meaning it is unknown whether the vaccine causes cancer or genetic mutations in humans.
  • MIT reported earlier this month how Bavarian Nordic’s vice president of clinical strategy, Heinz Weidenthaler, admitted the effectiveness of the company’s monkeypox vaccine has not yet been tested: “[W]e’ve simply had no opportunity to test this in humans,” said Weidenthaler.
  • There are no long-term studies evaluating how the monkeypox vaccine will interact with the COVID-19 vaccine itself already linked to heart disease (herehereherehere).
  • The WHO has admitted that the monkeypox vaccine is “not 100% effective” against the virus.