Budget group finds Democratic spending bill would add to deficits, endangering centrist support

A new budget projection shows the Democratic climate and social spending bill would add to the deficit, a finding that could further imperil support from centrist Democrats like Sen. Joe Manchin. 

The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania released a report finding that President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better Act, as it currently stands, would generate $1.8 trillion in revenue but cost $2.1 trillion in spending, resulting in a net deficit of $274 billion over the next decade.

The report, which was compiled using the school’s budget model, additionally forecast that the spending legislation would result in a 0.2% decrease in gross domestic product through 2050, even when accounting for the positive growth effects from some of the spending mechanisms.

The Democratic bill is chock full of spending provisions that have early sunsets and drive down the headline price of the agenda, a tactic that Republicans and certain outside groups have characterized as gimmickry. 

The Wharton model found that if those provisions are extended, the true price would be much higher. 

“In an alternative, illustrative scenario in which all temporary provisions in [the package] are made permanent, spending would instead total $4.6 trillion over the 10-year budget window,” the report reads. “In this scenario, by 2050 federal debt increase by 24.4 percent and GDP would fall by 2.9 percent relative to current law.” 

Those estimates are similar to those from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a group that advocates for lower deficits, which projected on Monday that if temporary provisions are made permanent, the cost would increase by as much as $2.5 trillion and the gross cost of the bill would more than double from $2.4 trillion to $4.9 trillion. 

The findings that the bill would increase deficits and slow growth might give lawmakers who are on the fence about the plan’s price tag pause, and many are apprehensively waiting for a score from the Congressional Budget Office. 

Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, has said on numerous occasions that he will not support a bill that balloons the country’s deficit, and he, along with centrist Democrat Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, are the two most closely watched lawmakers as their party works to craft a successful reconciliation plan. 

“I will not support a bill that is this consequential without thoroughly understanding the impact that it will have on our national debt, our economy and, most importantly, all of our American people,” Manchin said earlier this month

The New York Times reported Monday night that White House officials have “begun bracing lawmakers for a disappointing estimate from the budget office, which is likely to find that the cost of the overall package will not be fully paid for with new tax revenue over the coming decade.” 

The White House has pushed back on the reporting, suggesting on Tuesday that it is not preparing centrists for a bad CBO score and that much revenue would be generated from the plan’s moves to crack down on tax cheats.

Democrats can’t afford to lose either Manchin or Sinema’s vote as the Senate is tied 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris serving as the tiebreaking vote.

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