Biden Slipping, Trump Remains Strong—80% GOP Primary Vote Support

The voter optimism of the past few months has stalled in the new national poll of 1,000 likely voters that we posted this week and may once again be headed in the wrong direction.

Over the past few months, more and more voters thought that the US was headed in the right direction, but this month the wrong track exceeded right direction 48% to 47%.

This perception is totally polarized by politics.

Joe Biden’s 2020 voters say the country is headed in the right direction 79% to 16%, but Trump 2020 voters say that the US is on the wrong track 84% to 13%.

The same is true by party and ideology.

Democrats and liberals say that we’re headed in the right direction 80%-15% and 75%-20%, respectively.

In contrast Republicans and conservatives say that we’re on the wrong track 78%-20% and 79%-19%, respectively.

But, in the middle, pessimism may be helping Republicans as the undecided voters for Congress say that the US is on the wrong track 47%-33%; independents 55%-39% and suburban voters 53%-44% also say wrong track.

With the right direction stalled and wrong track growing again, President Biden’s job approval is stuck, too.

Last month, Biden’s job approval was 56% to 43% disapprove.

This month, it’s approve 55% to disapprove 44%. Similarly Biden’s favorable to unfavorable rating is 54% to 45%.

These are pretty high negatives for a president who gets overwhelmingly positive media coverage.

Although we polled right before Vice President Kamala Harris made her long awaited trip to the Southern U.S. border, Harris’ favorable to unfavorable rating remains polarized with exactly the same 47% to 48% rating that she had last month.

Independents 44%-48%, white voters 37%-59%, married voters 44%-53%, suburban voters 45%-51% and even women 46%-49% give Harris net negative ratings and do not like her.

Last month, 64% of all voters thought that with Joe Biden being 78 years old and 82 at the end of his term, they said it was likely that Kamala Harris will be President before the end of Joe Biden’s term.

This month, it’s virtually the same at 63% saying it’s likely that Harris will become the President before the end of Biden’s 4 year term. This includes 50% of Biden voters and 56% among Democrats.

If Biden does not run again in 2024, Kamala Harris remains the frontrunner among Democratic primary voters at 31% which is down from 35% last month, while Michelle Obama has risen from 16% to 19% this month.

All other Democrats are 5% or less.

In contrast former President Trump holds his strong, solid Republican base of support:

  • 72% of all Republicans want to see Donald Trump run for President again in 2024.
  • 80% of Republican primary voters, including independents who vote in Republican primaries, would support President Trump for the Republican nomination if he ran again in 2024.
  • 84%-12%, Republican primary voters, again including those independents who vote in Republican primaries, would vote for him in the 2024 general election.
  • If the primary becomes a crowded field with 15 candidates, Trump obliterates the field with 55% of all votes and no one else gets double digits. Ron DeSantis, who says he won’t run against Trump, gets 9%, Mike Pence 8%, Ted Cruz and Candace Owens get 4% each, Nikki Haley and Mitt Romney get 3% each and 7 others get 1% each.