The U.S. Fertility rate hit a record low in 2025: 1.57 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1. And by 2033, according to the Congressional Budget Office, America will record more deaths than births in a single year. For the first time in the history of this republic, we will be shrinking.
According to an April 2026 report from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS), “The provisional number of births for the United States in 2025 was 3,606,400, a 1% decline from 2024.” It adds, “The number of births declined by an average 2% per year from 2015 through 2020 and has generally fluctuated since then.”
Since 2010, birth rates among women aged 20 to 24 have been cut nearly in half, from close to 100 births per 1,000 women to just over 50. For teenage girls, the drop is even steeper. Last year, for the first time ever, women in their late 30s had higher birth rates than women in their 20s. That’s not a trend. That’s a structural collapse.
The latest report maintains the ongoing trend, as U.S. birth rates also dropped to their lowest levels in more than 40 years in 2023.
President Trump has taken measures to address birth rate concerns. His “Big, Beautiful Bill” created the $1,000 Trump accounts for babies born between 2025 and 2028. He signed an executive order in 2025 to lower costs for IVF. JD Vance stood at the March for Life and said plainly: there is an obligation to the next generation, and the government should make it easier for young parents to afford children and welcome them as blessings.
