A new index tracking marriage rates, fertility, and two-parent households across all 50 states finds that American families are leaving blue states at a significant rate and settling in red ones, upending years of progressive claims that liberal policies are best for children.
The 2026 Family Structure Index, released Tuesday by the Center for Christian Virtue and the Institute for Family Studies, measured family health across every state. The results weren’t close.
From 2019 to 2024, 840,000 married couples with children relocated from blue states to red states. Only 470,000 moved the other direction, a net gain of 370,000 married families for red states.
Since 2000, red states have seen a 7.3% increase in their child populations. Blue states have seen a 7.1% decline.
“Married couples with children are increasingly moving to red and purple states,” the report found. “Red states also enjoy higher fertility rates.”
The researchers identified several reasons for the shift. Affordable housing, lower tax burdens, strong job growth in sectors that support middle-class life, and safer neighborhoods all play a role. In much of coastal blue America, restrictive zoning and soaring costs have pushed homeownership out of reach for young families.
States like Texas, Florida, and South Carolina have added jobs and kept housing attainable. California, Massachusetts, and New York are bleeding families.
But the report points to something beyond economics: culture.
“Faith remains a powerful driver of American family life,” the report states. Frequent religious attendance accounts for 57% of the variance in fertility rates across states. High-church states like Utah and Mississippi have far higher birth rates than Vermont or Massachusetts.
The findings contradict years of messaging from liberal elites. Journalist Catherine Rampell wrote that progressive policies like paid family leave and childcare subsidies prove “that one major party cares about children and families, and the other does not.” The data suggests families are drawing a different conclusion, and voting with their moving trucks.
The trend has broad implications. A younger, family-forming population increasingly concentrated in red states shifts political representation, economic growth, and cultural influence toward conservative-leaning America over time.
The report measured three core factors: marriage rates, fertility rates, and the share of children being raised by two married parents. By all three measures, red states lead by a widening margin.
