Energy supply pressure has intensified after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupted key infrastructure and killed senior leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Beijing, which buys roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, now faces mounting pressure to secure vital oil supplies while avoiding direct involvement in a widening Middle East conflict. Chinese officials have condemned the attacks and urged restraint.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi called the “blatant killing of a sovereign leader” and attempts to provoke regime change “unacceptable,” urging an immediate ceasefire and renewed talks. Beijing has long relied on Iranian crude, importing between 1.2 and 1.9 million barrels per day since spring 2023. That accounts for roughly 12% to 15% of China’s total oil supply.
Most Iranian shipments depart from Kharg Island and pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling about 45% of China’s oil imports. Disruptions there pose the greatest threat. Tankers often transfer cargo near Malaysia or the South China Sea to obscure origin before delivery to refineries along China’s Shandong coast.
Analysts note that China currently holds an estimated 40 to 45 million barrels in floating storage, providing short-term protection. However, sustained instability could expose deeper vulnerabilities. Tehran’s discounted crude, often priced 6% to 10% below market rates due to sanctions, remains difficult to replace quickly.
Beijing’s partnership with Iran remains pragmatic rather than fully strategic. Despite a 2021 Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement, large-scale investments have lagged. China’s approach balances energy security with regional stability, seeking to protect supply lines without escalating tensions with Washington.
