Fears of a broader conflict are rising as talk of Hezbollah activation intensifies amid potential U.S. action against Iran’s regime. Analysts warn that if Washington directly targets Tehran’s leadership, Iran could respond by unleashing its proxy force in Lebanon. The prospect places renewed focus on President Trump’s inner circle as critical decisions approach.
According to reports, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has tightened operational control over Hezbollah. Ross Harrison, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said, “If the regime in Tehran feels threatened, the likelihood of unleashing Hezbollah against Israel and U.S. regional assets increases substantially.” He added, “Hezbollah would not be activated right away, unless the attack immediately targets the leadership of the Islamic Republic. But as part of a graduated response, Hezbollah will likely be seen as an asset.”
Harrison warned that escalation could be swift. “If it faces an existential risk, then Iran may throw caution to the wind and try to deploy Hezbollah to the maximum,” he said. He also cautioned about the “potential for attacks to spread across the region, to Israel through direct Iranian ballistic attacks and via Hezbollah, and to the Gulf Arab states through Iran directly and possibly via the Houthis from Yemen.”
President Trump previously gave Iran 10 to 15 days to respond to a proposed deal as nuclear talks continue in Geneva. “The decision-making circle in the White House is very small regarding Iran, with the president keeping a close hand on it all,” Harrison explained. “Normally there is input from the National Security Council and the wider intelligence community,” he added, noting, “Since the decision-making process in the White House is opaque, it is hard to know how much of this is getting through.”
“The IRGC has supported Hezbollah in Lebanon for decades,” Harrison said, stressing that Iran views the group as a deterrent against Israeli or American action.
