A housing market expert is warning that the level of affordability Americans enjoyed before the COVID-19 pandemic is unlikely to return. Rising home prices, elevated mortgage rates, and long-term supply constraints have fundamentally reshaped the market. The warning underscores growing concern that homeownership is drifting further out of reach for working families.
Dan Coakley, principal at PMG Affordable, told Fox Business that the affordability crisis is structural, not temporary. He explained that even meaningful interest-rate cuts would not be enough to restore conditions seen in 2019. According to Coakley, housing costs have risen far faster than wages for years, locking in long-term pressure on buyers.
Data from Realtor.com illustrates the scale of the problem. To match pre-pandemic affordability, mortgage rates would need to fall near 2.6 percent, median household incomes would need to rise more than 50 percent, or home prices would have to drop roughly 35 percent. Analysts view all three scenarios as highly unrealistic.
Supply shortages remain a central issue. New home construction has lagged population growth for decades, while regulatory burdens and higher material costs have slowed development. At the same time, demand has remained strong, particularly in suburban and Sun Belt markets, keeping prices elevated even as sales slow.
Coakley also pointed to policy discussions tied to President Trump, including limiting institutional investors in single-family housing and encouraging greater liquidity in mortgage markets. While those steps could ease pressure at the margins, he cautioned they would not reverse long-term trends.
Projections suggest that if current conditions persist, pre-pandemic affordability levels may not return for decades. The consequences extend beyond buyers, delaying family formation, increasing rental dependence, and weakening the stability that homeownership has long provided American communities.
