A Venezuela military assessment from international experts shows a regime projecting power while struggling with corruption, decay and instability, raising new questions as tensions rise between Washington and Nicolás Maduro. Analysts told Fox News Digital the force may look imposing on paper, but years of erosion leave it unable to stop a determined U.S. air campaign, even as a broader ground operation would present major challenges for the United States.
Isaias Medina, an international lawyer and former Venezuelan diplomat, described the country as a criminalized state supported by narcotrafficking networks. “Venezuela today resembles a fortress built on sand wrapped around a criminal regime,” he said, noting that any hypothetical U.S. operation would be “evicting a terrorist cartel that settled next door and not invading a country.” Medina also urged caution due to dense civilian populations, saying the United States would need “overwhelming bias toward restraint and longer operational timelines.”
Medina stated the Venezuela military appears stronger than reality, with equipment rusting from neglect and thousands of politically appointed generals disconnected from lower-ranking troops who may abandon their posts. Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery told Fox News Digital the regime’s most immediate threat lies in its air-naval systems, including fighter jets, limited naval assets and Russian-made surface-to-air missiles. “Reasonably speaking, in the first day or two of a campaign plan, we can eliminate the air and maritime threat to U.S. forces,” he said.
Montgomery emphasized that any U.S. effort targeting cocaine production would begin with simultaneous strikes on airfields, aircraft and air defense systems. Asked if Venezuela could retaliate, he responded, “Not against an air campaign. No.” However, he warned a ground mission would be far more difficult, pointing to the nation’s size, geography and a mix of professional soldiers and militia forces whose loyalty depends on Maduro. “This would be a terrifically challenging ground campaign,” he said, adding, “Today, I would not do this. I do not recommend it.”
Despite years of decay, Venezuela retains tanks, artillery, rocket systems and an estimated handful of flyable Su-30 jets. Analysts say these assets cannot stop a U.S. campaign but could complicate early strikes. The nation’s growing ties with Iran, Russia and China continue to concern U.S. officials monitoring regional security.
Jorge Jraissati, president of the Economic Inclusion Group, said “numbers show only 20% of Venezuelans approve of this regime,” arguing that for more than a decade, Caracas has ignored the will of its population while aligning with “anti-Western regimes that destabilize the region.” The deteriorating conditions and shifting alliances underscore why U.S. analysts describe the Venezuela military as increasingly unreliable, politically controlled and weakened despite its large inventory.
