A major climate study error triggered a rare and sweeping retraction this week, after Nature admitted that a widely cited climate-change report contained fundamental data flaws. The journal pulled the study Wednesday, acknowledging that “the authors … acknowledge that these changes are too substantial for a correction.” The decision followed an external economic review that found significant mistakes overlooked by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Released in April 2024, the study claimed climate change would cost the global economy $38 trillion by 2049 and slash global output 62 percent by 2100—numbers far beyond prior projections. Before the retraction, Nature warned readers that “the reliability of data and methodology presented in this manuscript is currently in question.”
Major media outlets amplified the now-discredited work. Forbes reported that “climate change is on track to cost the global economy $38 trillion a year,” while the Associated Press said the economic toll was “already locked in at about $38 trillion a year.” Reuters echoed the sensational figure as “almost certain to rise.” International bodies such as the OECD and NGFS incorporated the study into their own climate assessments.
Economists later discovered that flawed inputs for Uzbekistan had massively skewed global results. “Most people for the last decade have thought that a 20 percent reduction in 2100 was an insanely large number,” Stanford’s Solomon Hsiang said. “So the fact that this paper is coming out saying 60 percent is off the chart.” Another economist, Christof Schötz, warned the paper “cannot serve as a basis for reliable future projections.”
The incident comes as some activists dial back dire rhetoric. Bill Gates recently said climate change “will not be the end of civilization.” Economist Lint Barrage noted the broader credibility problem: “If your goal is to try to make the case for climate change,” Barrage highlighted, “you have crossed the line from scientist to activist, and why would the public trust you?”
