The recent wave of NATO airspace incursions by Russian jets and drones is forcing hard questions inside the alliance about its credibility and will to act. While Estonia and Poland have invoked NATO’s Article 4 clause, some Western leaders appear reluctant to escalate — a hesitation that Eastern European officials warn plays straight into Vladimir Putin’s hands.
According to multiple reports, Secretary General Mark Rutte even clashed with Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal over Estonia’s Article 4 request, warning that too many invocations could “dilute” NATO’s deterrent power. Lithuanian MP Giedrimas Jeglinskas disagreed, arguing that words without consequences make the alliance look weak: “If we really want to send a proper message of deterrence to Russia, we need to be prepared to use kinetic force.”
Poland has already scrambled jets against drones, and Estonia’s defense minister declared his country ready to shoot down Russian aircraft “if there is a need.” But some allies continue to push consultations rather than action. As one senior U.S. official admitted, “Almost all wars … don’t necessarily start with a big bang. They start with an escalation.”
Former President Donald Trump, by contrast, delivered a far clearer message — that NATO nations should shoot down Russian jets violating sovereignty. That clarity, Baltic leaders say, boosts their confidence that America still has their back.
Jeglinskas put it bluntly: “NATO remains the most crucial element of our security equation … but warfare is changing — and the question now is, has NATO adapted?” If the alliance cannot back up its words with action, NATO airspace incursions risk becoming just another test Russia wins.
