David Betz, a professor of war at King’s College London, has issued a sobering warning that civil war in Western nations—particularly in the United Kingdom—is no longer a remote possibility, but a growing likelihood. Speaking this week, Betz said that based on global civil conflict indicators, the UK and parts of Europe now show signs of being in a “pre-civil war” state.
Betz, once a relatively obscure academic, has gained attention in 2025 for his warnings about the deepening Balkanization of British and European society. In a recent interview, he said the opportunity to avoid serious internal conflict has passed and that leaders should now focus on “mitigating the costs” rather than preventing violence altogether.
“I would probably avoid big cities,” Betz advised, suggesting urban centers are most at risk. He attributed the deteriorating situation to decades of political mismanagement and cultural disintegration, saying, “We are past the point at which normal politics is able to solve the problem.”
Betz drew comparisons to previous conflicts like the Troubles in Northern Ireland, and even the Bosnian and Syrian civil wars, estimating that death tolls in a future Western civil conflict could reach tens of thousands—or even millions in worst-case scenarios. He underscored that his warnings are not intended to stoke violence but to prompt serious preparation by government and military authorities.
Among the steps he recommends: protecting nuclear arsenals and securing national cultural treasures from potential destruction or looting. He noted that cultural heritage is often deliberately targeted in civil wars as a means of erasing identity and demoralizing the enemy.
Betz highlighted Britain’s demographic trajectory, warning that native Britons are beginning to perceive themselves as being displaced. He believes this perception may provoke a backlash, leading to more radical responses. “I just don’t think the British people want to be displaced from their own country,” he said. “People are already perceiving an urgency to act.”
He concluded by stating that while he hopes Britain and other nations can avoid the worst, current political leadership lacks the credibility or resolve to stabilize the situation. Without significant change, he warned, “the existence of this idea [of England]… is very seriously in peril.”
