The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a potential tropical disturbance in the northern Atlantic Ocean, months ahead of the official start of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
In a notice on Monday, the NHC stated that it has low confidence in further development of the system. However, this serves as a reminder that hurricane season is approaching, officially beginning in less than three months.
The disturbance is a non-tropical area of low pressure located about 700 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. It is producing disorganized showers, thunderstorms, and gale-force winds ranging between 39 mph and 54 mph. Despite these conditions, the NHC expects the system to weaken as it moves into an area with strong upper-level wind shear and dry air. The agency currently gives it only a 10% chance of development over the next two days and seven days.
“Additional development is not expected as it moves into an environment of strong upper-level winds and dry air tonight and Tuesday,” the center stated in a post on X. No further updates will be issued unless conditions change.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring around September 10. While most storms form within this window, it is not unheard of for rare systems to develop earlier.
Historically, the first named tropical storm of the season forms in mid-to-late June, the first hurricane in early-to-mid August, and the first major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) in late August or early September.
Colorado State University (CSU) will release its first hurricane season forecast on April 3, 2025, with additional updates to follow. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will also issue its seasonal outlook in the coming weeks.
